Fellows Of The Royal Society

"Your vict'ries won—your revolution ended— Your constitution newly made—and mended— Your fund of wit—your intellectual riches— Plans in the closet—in the senate speeches— Will make this age of heroes, wits and sages The first in story to the latest ages!— Go on—and prosper with your projects blest, Till your millennium rises in the west:— We wish success to your politic scheming, Rule ye the world!—and then—be rul'd by women!"

"And let philosophers say what they please, You're not grown less by coming o'er the seas."

"For here, ye fair, no servile rites bear sway, Nor force ye—(though ye promise)—to obey: Blest in the mildness of tins temp'rate zone, Slaves to no whims, or follies—but your own.— Here custom, check'd in ev'ry rude excess, Confines its influence to the arts of dress, O'er charms eclips'd the side-long hat displays, Extends the hoop, or pares away the stays, Bedecks the fair with artificial gear, Breast-works in front, and bishops in the rear:— The idol rears, on beauty's dazzling throne, Mankind her slaves, and all the world her own; Bound by no laws a husband's whims to fear, Obey in life, or burn upon his bier; She views with equal eye, sublime o'er all, A lover perish—or a lap-dog fall— Coxcombs or monkeys from their chains broke loose— And now a husband dead—and now a goose."

"His appointment as abbot may have been an excellent thing for the monastery, but it cannot be denied that it was a great misfortune for science."

"So long as was encumbered with its pseudo-classical incubus its votaries were few in number. The more it grew into a science founded on observation, the more it attracted popular attention. The writings of , composed in a clear and elegant style, and offering a systematic arrangement such as all could readily understand, contributed more than those of any other naturalist to the spread of a taste for his favourite science. He was eminently a popular writer, and, no matter what criticism may now be passed on his system, it must be admitted that to it is greatly owing the rapidity with which the natural sciences advanced in public favour in the early part of last century."

"The name }} is assigned by botanists to a large group or natural class of ic or flowerless plants, which form the principal and characteristic vegetation of the waters. The sea, in no climate from the s to the , is altogether free from them, though they abound on some shores much more than on others, a subject which will come particularly under notice when we speak of the distribution of their several tribes. Species abound likewise in fresh water, whether running or stagnant, and in mineral springs. The strongly impregnated sulphureous streams of Italy,—the eternal snows of the and regions,—and the of Iceland, have each their peculiar species ; and even chemical solutions, if long kept, produce Algae. Very few, comparatively, inhabit stations which are not submerged or exposed to the constant dripping of water; and, in all situations where they are found, great dampness, at least, is necessary to their production."

"In 1853 Harvey started on a prolonged tour to the East; his route included Egypt, Ceylon, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, and sundry of the islands of the Pacific, and he returned ultimately by way of and Panama. The journey was originally undertaken in the interests of the and resulted in a large addition to its treasures. His extensive collections contained a huge mass of material, all of which was practically new. He took all available opportunities of exploring the of the different coasts to which he had access and amassed such a wealth of material that the collection was unequalled by any other of the time. The use he made of it is shown by the great Phycologia Australica which occupied him for five years after his return."

"Imperfect as is the , how infinitely more imperfect must necessarily be our knowledge of that record! The largest s, , and other excavations made by man, are in themselves relatively insignificant scratches on the surface of the vast mass of fossil-bearing rocks, but yet how small a fraction of the material obtained in such excavations ever passes under the detailed scrutiny of the palaeontologist."

"He once jokingly referred to the report, published in , of his award of the in 1955 as "a very pleasant obituary notice"."

"The was organised by the during the years 1871 and 1872 at the suggestion of the . The ship was fitted out under the direction of , at that time , and she sailed from in December 1872. The special object of the Expedition was the scientific exploration of the physical, chemical, geological, and biological conditions of the great s. In addition to a full complement of specially selected Naval Officers, the Expedition comprised a scientific staff of six civilians, under the direction of . After circumnavigating the globe, and carrying on deep-sea and other investigations in many regions of the ocean, the Challenger returned to England in May 1876, and the crew was paid off after the ship had been in commission for over three years and seven months."

"Murray's great opportunity came in 1872 when he was appointed to the staff of the , that famous expedition, organised in , which will probably be for all time recognised as the most important in the history of oceanic exploration. Murray played a large part in the preliminary organising and fitting out as well as in the conduct of the expedition. During the four years of the actual voyage he specialised particularly in the collection and study of pelagic organisms and deep-sea deposits, but his greatest work in this connection and the great work of his life was after the return of the expedition. Owing to the failing health of the main share in organising the working out of the enormous collections fell very soon to Murray, and after Thomson's death in 1882 he became in name, as he already was in fact, responsible for this side of the work. For nineteen years Murray managed the most remarkable team of scientific workers which was probably ever brought into collaboration. , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Huxley, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , : all these, in addition to other and younger workers, contributed, and contributed of their best, to these wonderful fifty volumes which form not merely the foundation but a great part of the whole edifice of modern ."

".–During the voyage of the and subsequently, Mr Darwin made a profound study of s, and has given a theory of their mode of formation which has since been universally accepted by scientific men. Darwin's theory may be said to rest on two facts—the one physiological, and the other physical—the former, that those species of corals whose skeletons chiefly make up reefs cannot live in depths greater than from 20 to 30 fathoms; the latter, that the surface of the earth is continually undergoing or ."

"When we cast a retrospective glance at the history of , we find that nearly all the great advances in geography took place among commercial—and in a very special manner among maritime—peoples. Whenever primitive races commenced to look upon the ocean, not as a terrible barrier separating lands, but rather as a means of communication between distant countries, they soon acquired increased wealth and power, and beheld the dawn of new ideas and great . Down even to our own day the power and progress of nations may, in a sense, be measured by the extent to which their seamen have been able to brave the many perils, and their learned men have been able to unravel the many riddles, of the great ocean. The history of civilisation runs parallel with the history of navigation in all its wider aspects."

"The majority of fishes produce s in enormous numbers, amounting in some cases to several millions, and correlated with this the size of the individual egg has become much reduced. The average diameter of a ean egg may be taken as about 1 . In an egg of this size segmentation of so markedly meroblastic a character would be puzzling except on the hypothesis that the meroblastic condition had arisen in ancestral forms in which the eggs were much larger."

"The general lecture course in is accompanied by laboratory work extending over a hundred hours. In great part this follows the usual lines such as are laid down in and Hurst’s Text-book, but a special feature is made of the study of a valuable series of demonstration specimens. This includes the study, under high-power s, of such organisms as s, , s, and s. Experience has shown that students fully appreciate the privilege of being able to examine such preparations for themselves, and that they take the greatest care not to do damage. Opportunities are also given for seeing Trypanosomes, , e and so on, in the living condition. This demonstration part of the course is regarded as being of special value in arousing and gripping the interest of the student."

"The Hindoos of Bokhara courted our society, for that people seem to look upon the English as their natural superiors. They visited us in every country we passed, and would never speak any other language than Hindoostanee, which was a bond of union between us and them. In this country they appeared to enjoy a sufficient degree of toleration to enable them to live happily. An enumeration of their restrictions might make them appear a persecuted race. They are not permitted to build temples, nor set up idols, nor walk in procession: they do not ride within the walls of the city, and must wear a peculiar dress. They pay the ‘jizyu,’ or poll-tax, which varies from four to eight rupees a year; but this they only render in common with others, not Mahommedans. They must never abuse or ill-use a Mahommedan. When the king passes their quarter of the city, they must draw up, and wish him health and prosperity; when on horseback outside the city, they must dismount if they meet his majesty or the Cazee [Kazi]. They are not permitted to purchase female slaves, as an infidel would defile a believer; nor do any of them bring their families beyond the Oxus. For these sacrifices the Hindoos in Bokhara live unmolested, and, in all trials and suits, have equal justice with the Mahommedans. I could hear of no forcible instance of conversion to Islam, though three or four individuals had changed their creed in as many years. The deportment of these people is most sober and orderly; — one would imagine that the tribe had renounced laughter, if he judged by the gravity of their countenances. They themselves, however, speak highly of their privileges, and are satisfied at the celerity with which they can realise money, though it be at the sacrifice of their prejudices. There are about 300 Hindoos in Bokhara, living in a caravansary of their own. They are chiefly natives of Shikarpoor in Sinde, and their number has of late years rather increased. The Uzbeks, and, indeed, all the Mahommedans, find themselves vanquished by the industry of these people, who will stake the largest sums of money for the smallest gain."

"From the slave-market I passed on that morning to the great bazar, and the very first sight which fell under my notice was the offenders against Mahommedanism of the preceding Friday. They consisted of four individuals, who had been caught asleep at prayer time, and a youth, who had been smoking in public. They were all tied to each other, and the person who had been found using tobacco led the way, holding the hookah, or pipe, in his hand. The officer of police followed with a thick thong, and chastised them as he went, calling aloud, ‘Ye followers of Islam, behold the punishment of those who violate the law!’ Never, however, was there such a series of contradiction and absurdity as in the practice and theory of religion in Bokhara. You may openly purchase tobacco and all the most approved apparatus for inhaling it; yet if seen smoking in public you are straightway dragged before the Cazee [Kazi], punished by stripes, or paraded on a donkey, with a blackened face, as a warning to others. If a person is caught flying pigeons on a Friday, he is sent forth with the dead bird round his neck, seated on a camel. If seen in the streets at the time of prayers, and convicted of such habitual neglect, fines and imprisonment follow; yet there are bands of the most abominable wretches, who frequent the streets at evening for purposes as contrary to the Koran as to nature. Every thing, indeed, presents a tissue of contrarieties; and none were more apparent to me than the punishment of the culprits who were marching, with all the pomp of publicity, past the very gateway of the court where human beings were levelled with the brutes of the earth, no doubt against the laws of humanity, but as certainly against the laws of Mahommed."

"Among the Hindoos we had a singular visiter in a deserter from the Indian army at Bombay. He had set out on a pilgrimage to all the shrines of the Hindoo world, and was then proceeding to the fire temples on the shores of the Caspian! I knew many of the officers of the regiment (the 24th N. I.) to which he had belonged, and felt pleased at hearing names which were familiar to me in this remote city. I listened with interest to the man’s detail of his adventures and travels, nor was he deterred by any fear that I would lodge information against him, and secure his apprehension. I looked upon him as a brother in arms, and he amused me with many a tale of my friend Moorad Beg of Koondooz, whom he had followed in his campaigns, and served as a bombardier. This man, when he first showed himself, was disguised in the dress of a pilgrim; but the carriage of a soldier is not to be mistaken, even if met at Bokhara."

"The Uzbeks manage all their affairs by means of slaves, who are chiefly brought from Persia by the Toorkmuns. Here these poor wretches are exposed for sale, and occupy thirty or forty stalls, where they are examined like cattle, only with this difference, that they are able to give an account of themselves vivâ voce. On the morning I visited the bazar, there were only six unfortunate beings, and I witnessed the manner in which they are disposed of. They are first interrogated regarding their parentage and capture, and if they are Mahommedans, that is, Soonees [Sunni]. The question is put in that form, for the Uzbeks do not consider a Shiah to be a true believer; with them, as with the primitive Christians, a sectary is more odious than an unbeliever. After the intended purchaser is satisfied of the slave being an infidel (kaffir), he examines his body, particularly noting if he be free from leprosy, so common in Toorkistan, and then proceeds to bargain for his price. Three of the Persian boys were for sale at thirty tillas of gold apiece; and it was surprising to see how contented the poor fellows sat under their lot. I heard one of them telling how he had been seized south of Meshid, while tending his flocks. There was one unfortunate girl, who had been long in service, and was now exposed for sale by her master, because of his poverty. I felt certain that many a tear had been shed in the court where I surveyed the scene; but I was assured from every quarter that slaves are kindly treated; and the circumstance of so many of them continuing in the country after they have been manumitted, seems to establish this fact. The bazars of Bokhara are chiefly supplied from Orgunje. Russian and Chinese are also sold, but rarely. The feelings of an European revolt at this most odious traffic; but the Uzbeks entertain no such notions, and believe that they are conferring a benefit on a Persian when they purchase him, and see that he renounces his heretical opinions."

"In 1880 … Petrie set out on an expedition to Egypt long contemplated and prepared for, but delayed in the fruitless hope that his father might accompany him. So the survey of the pyramids, begun with an open mind but in the end intended to settle once for all controversy about prophetic feet and inches, was undertaken almost single-handed, the only helper being an old Egyptian who, as a child, had served , and later and . When Petrie, after two winters in Egypt and a year’s work on the plans, submitted his account to the in 1883 Francis Galton reported so favourably on it that £100 was granted for publication. Galton continued his encouragement in subsequent years, and , who, with and others, had just founded the , insisted that this new body should give the young man an opportunity to excavate. Thus his excavations commenced when he was thirty; they continued, with very rare exceptions, every year for over fifty years."

"From the ' diggers, I secured a lot of seventy-five Attic s in perfect condition, which served to show the accuracy of the mint in Athens, for most of the coins would have passed our own mint standard."

"Flinders Petrie had no school or university training. His mother was the only child of , a naval officer who served under Bligh of ', and later explored and surveyed much of the coast of Australia. This lady taught her son the rudiments of knowledge and imbued him at an early age with the love of collecting and studying Greek and Roman coins."

"In few kinds of work are the results so directly dependent on the personality of the worker as they are in excavating. The old saying that a man finds what he looks for in a subject, is too true; or if he has not enough insight to ensure finding what he looks for, it is at least sadly true that he does not find anything that he does not look for. Whether it be , , , or that excavators have been seeking, they have seldom preserved or cared for anything but their own limited object. Of late years the notion of digging merely for profitable spoil, or to yield a new excitement to the jaded, has spread unpleasantly—at least in Egypt. A concession to dig is sought much like a grant of a monastery at the : the man who has influence or push, a title or a trade connection, claims to try his luck at the spoils of the land. Gold digging has at least no moral responsibility, beyond the ruin of the speculator; but spoiling the past has an acute moral wrong in it, which those who do it may be charitably supposed to be too ignorant or unintelligent to see or realise."

"To the Egyptian the gods might be mortal; even , the sun-god, is said to have grown old and feeble, was slain, and , the great hunter of the heavens, killed and ate the gods. The mortality of gods has been dwelt on by ('), and the many instances of tombs of gods, and of the slaying of the deified man who was worshipped, all show that immortality was not a divine attribute. Nor was there any doubt that they might suffer while alive; one myth tells how Ra, as he walked on earth, was bitten by a magic serpent and suffered torments. The gods were also supposed to share in a life like that of man, not only in Egypt but in most ancient lands. Offerings of food and drink were constantly supplied to them, in Egypt laid upon the altars, in other lands burnt for a sweet savour."

"In 1893-1894 I went to to search for remains of the dynastic race, which presumably had entered Egypt at that point from the Red Sea. In the lowest part of the temple foundations we found parts of three colossal figures of the local god , each with surface carvings of animals, &c. They obviously belonged to a far earlier art than anything known in Egypt, and all later discoveries confirm their being placed as the earliest works of the , long before the establishment of the . One figure is at Cairo, and two are in the Asmolean Museum at Oxford."

"The first consideration on reaching Egypt was where to be housed. In those days there was no luxurious close to the ; if any one needed to live there, they must either live in a tomb or in the Arab village. As an English engineer had left a tomb fitted with door and shutters I was glad to get such accommodation. When I say a tomb, it must be understood to be the upper chamber where the Egyptian fed his ancestors with offerings, not the actual sepulchre. And I had three rooms, which had belonged to separate tombs originally ; the thin walls of rock which the economical Egyptian left between his cuttings, had been broken away, and so I had a doorway in the middle into my living-room, a window on one side for my bedroom, and another window opposite for a store-room. I resided here for a great part of two years; and often when in draughty houses, or chilly tents, I have wished myself back in my tomb. No place is so equable in heat and cold, as a room cut out in solid rock ; it seems as good as a fire in cold weather, and deliciously cool in the heat."

"He found archaeology in Egypt a treasure hunt; he left it a science."

"I do math and statistics. That's what I do, so I come at the whole business of turning numbers into stories. ...How can we turn numbers into stories?"

"Randomised trials have proved the effectiveness of some Covid treatments and saved vast numbers of lives... also showing... overblown claims about treatments... as hydroxychloroquine and , were incorrect."

"Currently, there are few books that can help at school level with communication issues in statistics and DS. One exception is Spiegelhalter, a masterpiece in how to communicate easy, not-so-easy, hard, and very difficult topics in statistics. It uses real-world problem solving as a starting point for introducing statistical ideas. One reviewer of the book suggested “it should be compulsory reading for teachers and students of statistics (indeed all subjects that use or produce data), in schools, colleges and universities.” Although the Spiegelhalter book is a great example of communication, the paucity of material in this area shows that there is an urgent need to develop a pedagogy and a corresponding range of resources in writing and communicating statistics and DS."

"(DVTs) [normally] happen to around one person per 1,000 each year... out of 5 million people getting vaccinated, we would expect... 5,000 DVTs a year, or... 100 every week. So it is not at all surprising that there have been 30 reports."

"In the UK, adverse reactions are reported using the “yellow card”... Up to 28 February, around 54,000 yellow cards have been reported... from... 10 million vaccinations... three to six reports per 1,000 jabs [0.3-0.6%]. That means a far greater number of side-effects are reported in the trials..."

"[S]omeone is diagnosed with autism after receiving the , so people assume a causal connection – even when there isn’t one."

"It’s a common human tendency to attribute a causal effect between different events, even when there isn’t one present..."

"[W]hen... there have been 30 "thromboembolic events" after around 5m vaccinations, the crucial question... is: how many would be expected anyway, in the normal run..?"

"In the trials that led to the vaccines... adverse events were reported by 38% of those receiving the real vaccine... 28% of those who received the control [dummy, or fake vaccine, of which some were meningitis vaccine] also reported a side-effect. ...[F]ewer than 1% reported a serious adverse event, and of these... slightly more had received the dummy than the active vaccine. ...So there was no evidence of increased risk ..."

"The most serious problem is anaphylactic reactions, and the advice is not to inject anyone with a previous history of allergic reactions to either a prior [vaccine] dose... or its ingredients."

"We find it very difficult to deal with... low numbers, one in a million, one in a billion... Once I have to start counting the zeros, all intuition and feeling goes. So it's hopeless, and of course we're bad at it. Why should we be good at doing that sort of thing? ...[I]t's more and more reported that people will use this expected frequency format, where instead of talking about... .03 per person year... What does that mean, for heaven's sakes. It's absolutely ridiculous scientific language for something. No, what you say is, out of 100 people... we would expect 3 for this to happen each year. ...You talk about a specific group of people, which you can... draw a... picture of... and that helps enormously. You... want to bring things to... whole numbers, small numbers, preferably between 1 and 100, or between 1 and 50... magnitudes that people have got a feeling for, and... no decimal places, no multiple zeros. You've got to get rid of all of that. You've got to get things to units people can understand, preferably on a scale of 1 to 10."

"s are very valuable in... low probability, high impact events. Every time you cross the road there is a low probability and high impact that you're going to get run over. ...You take extra precautions to reduce... very small risk to... even smaller. ...[O]n an absolute risk scale, you [might] say, "Oh, I'm not going to bother... It's not worth doing..." but... by making that low risk even smaller, it's... valid... [P]eople discovered this... doing earthquake predictions... [T]he absolute risk... it's always low. They're very unpredictable... but telling people it's 10 times normal, or 100 times normal, people will act... appropriately. ...They won't panic. They won't rush away. ...[I]n Italy ...they ...sleep outside for a bit. ...So in certain circumstances relative risk can be very valuable... [U]sing both in... situations... with very small risks.., where... consequences are... severe... [and] the cost of the intervention, the action, is... minimal. Taking a bit more precautions, being a bit more careful... not putting a big investment into making a very small risk even smaller.... not walking under ladders... a low-cost change in your behavior to make a small risk even smaller... [A]bsolute risks really don't deal well with that, because you're talking 0.000..."

"Framing is absolutely vital. ...All the work in communications is driven by the work of psychologists like Kahneman, Tversky...[etc.] The simplest one... is not always to talk about s, but to talk about s, and preferably... to give both. Our predict systems are almost always... positively framed, all in terms of survival. So we draw survival curves, not mortality curves... How long can you be without this condition. ...In a way you should give both, but ...it makes a big difference ...whether you talk about 2% mortality or 98% survival. ...2% mortality sounds rather terrifying while 98% survival sounds rather good, and we don't want to unnecessarily upset people... [W]e are all going to die ...It's 100% mortality in the end, but you want to show a decline in survival ...because it's just fairer and more likely to get people engaged rather than frighten them off immediately. ...[W]hen we ...provide an icon array that shows everybody, it shows the deaths ...patients like it. ...They like seeing out of 100 people ...in 10 years time, how many people are going to be alive ...because they have the chemotherapy now, or dead because of breast cancer...[etc.]"

"We spent ages... working... for child heart surgery... such a delicate area, trying to find the wording for... random error or binomial variability... [Y]ou can give a percentage... 95% . Well, am I going to be one of the 5% or one of the 95%? We don't know. It's just chance or luck, fortune. We can't... use those words in... delicate situations... operating on children... Then we came up with a good phrase... which we used and tested on parents... It's "unforeseeable factors," not "unforeseen factors," because that would suggest someone's to blame... [T]he unforeseeable factors could lead some people to... not survive the operation, and some to survive. So... we can put you in a group, but we can't go beyond that... [O]nly what develops over time, in terms of complications, or something like that, could... put... you in one group or another. "Unforeseeable factors," I really like that phrase. I try to use it all the time, I recommend it."

"s are disastrous. ...Relative risks are deeply misleading. They're a manipulative form of communication. To ever say, "Oh, this doubles your risk, or increases your risk 50%," absolute No-no! They are hopeless. In some situations they can be very valuable... but in general, medical things what... should be always given... s... with and without something... Like my s... I was getting... 15%, 10 year risk: 15 out 100 people like me might expect to have a heart attack or stroke. So I... roughly halved it... only in terms of relative risk... from 15% to 7-8%. ...Being told it halved it does sound good, but if wasn't a very big number in the first place, halving it is of no interest... especially if the thing's going to give me some side-effects... if it did, it would be completely pointless... [Y]ou cannot know... whether you should do something... [Y]ou cannot trade off the benefits... [and] the harms from a medical treatment without knowing the absolute risk. You cannot do it in any rational way whatsoever. ...A lot of the communication now is using absolute risk, which is a huge improvement."

"We need to think slow instead of fast, and resist drawing causal links between events where none may exist."

"So far, these vaccines have shown themselves to be extraordinarily safe."

"When it comes to trying to prevent you endangering other people, I don't see anything wrong with persuasion. ...[Y]ou shouldn't be... [endangering people] and you should be trying to be persuaded, if not forced... I get quite Stalinist on these things because... it's so irresponsible for some people to endanger the health of others. If they wanted to make their own decision that only affects them, it's very different, and I wouldn't want to persuade anyone..."

"When it comes to vaccines and infectious diseases, nobody is an individual... [With] [i]nfectious diseases... measles when it comes to vaccine decisions, or COVID-19 when it comes to taking precautions, we're not individuals. We are members of society, and there's no... "optimize your individual situation." You have... an absolute responsibility... to protect the people around you, particularly the vulnerable... [T]hat's why... people who avoid vaccinating their kids is outrageous and irresponsible... they are endangering weaker kids who might not be able to have the vaccines because their immune system is compromised or for some [other] reason... [S]imilarly, if young... healthy people... not... harmed by the virus, go around being irresponsible, they are endangering the lives of older people surrounding them, in particular, their own family."

"[I]n medicine... ... not manipulation or coercion, is when... as a doctor or... authority, you genuinely believe that this action is in the person's best interests, but they don't... want to do it. ...How do you make that an ethical persuasion? It's based on... two things, first... respecting the autonomy of the individuals, that they can refuse... no matter what, respect their ability to choose... the other thing is your authenticity, your integrity, that... you are doing this on behalf of that individual, for their best interest; not... to keep your clinic numbers up or to stop this person being a nuisance...[etc.]"

"[S]easonal flu—average year—kills 6,000 people in this country. Mainly old... vulnerable... frail...[etc.] So we are hit by this, year after year... epidemics... we've got to put this into perspective... [T]o an extent it is a trade-off between massive disruption... [I]f you say everyone has to stay in their home for 4 weeks... that's not just economic loss. It has a massive... health... [detriment] in terms of... mentality and fitness. Norsemen of harm will be done... so it's not just a matter of... "Minimize the number of deaths.""

"This current COVID-19 virus... is a classic situation... of... an uncertainty problem, rather than a risk problem because we... don't know the parameters. We don't know... how it might spread in Great Britain. We don't know the effectiveness of the interventions that are going to be made. So... when you're making projections... over the next 6 months, there's a massive range of possibilities, up to 1/2 million deaths... from about 5... the most optimistic... [A]ny quantification, giving any probabilities would be... very ambitious..."

"We know from studying and going... back to Geoffrey Rose's idea that the biggest impact on public health... is not by picking out the real high-risk people and maybe stopping them drinking. It's by reducing the exposure of the vast mass of people at intermediate risk. So... the biggest impact on public health would be if everybody drank a little bit less... But the problem... is the Rose paradox... the very people you want to change the behavior [of] are the ones who don't see why they should change their behavior, because the impact is minimal. They won't notice the benefits. You're asking them to give up something they enjoy for the benefit... they will... never notice... [I]t's only noticeable when... multiplied... ten million times./* Understanding Risk (Mar 24, 2020) */Ref: "a large number of people at a small risk may give rise to more cases of disease than the small number who are at"