Fellows Of The Royal Society

"Probability was only invented a few hundred years ago. It's not a natural way to think at all. It's extremely difficult and complex. Anything that can help people do it, is of benefit."

"There is a way... which comes from economics and social science. It was developed by... Frank Knight, and Keynes used this... The distinction between risk and uncertainty... [R]isk is about things... we... understand... known unknowns, to use Donald Rumsfeld's... great phrase... [something] we can put numbers on, things within... circumscribed situations... A lot of medicine is like this... repetition, a lot of data. ...[I]nsurance is like this ...We know roughly what the chances are, and we can talk about the numbers. Uncertainty is when... we don't know the numbers, or... deeper... we don't even know... the problem... the options... the possible outcomes..."

"There'a a nice thing about 1/2 hour because an adult life expectancy is 55 to 60 years... is actually a million 1/2 hours. A million 1/2 hours is 57 years. So you have got, not all of you... some of you have got a million 1/2 hours to fritter away."

"So we've been trying to think of another metaphor... and the one we caught hold of is... speed of aging. So it's turning these numbers, rather bold numbers quite difficult to understand, into stories, and the story we've got is, "Getting older quicker" or "Aging Slower"..."

"Life-expectancy reduced by 1 year = about 30 minutes off your life expectancy for each day with the habit = 1"

"[W]e tend to think... of something that's going to happen... soon, or is well understood as risk, but if we're talking about what will happen in the world in ten years time. Who's going to start putting chances on this. You'd be... deluded... There's much... deeper uncertainty or... radical uncertainty..."

"When it comes to vaccines and infectious diseases, nobody is an individual... [With] [i]nfectious diseases... measles when it comes to vaccine decisions, or COVID-19 when it comes to taking precautions, we're not individuals. We are members of society, and there's no... "optimize your individual situation." You have... an absolute responsibility... to protect the people around you, particularly the vulnerable... [T]hat's why... people who avoid vaccinating their kids is outrageous and irresponsible... they are endangering weaker kids who might not be able to have the vaccines because their immune system is compromised or for some [other] reason... [S]imilarly, if young... healthy people... not... harmed by the virus, go around being irresponsible, they are endangering the lives of older people surrounding them, in particular, their own family."

"So it's a different sort of risk. These are chronic risks. ...[T]hings that... if you carry on with them, are likely to shorten your life. So how can we express these... [T]hese are the ones that newspapers tend to get terribly wrong."

"This is called a hazard curve. ...This is the chance of dying before your next birthday, on average. ...[I]t's... on a , so 10%... (1 in 10) 83 year olds will not see 84... 1 in 100 people like me [age 59] will not see their next birthday. 1 in 1,000 thirty-two year olds, and 1 in 10,000 7 year olds... and there is a... lump, sadly jumping up at 17, as you can imagine... boys... a risk-taking lump, but if you ignore that lump... it's a... straight line between... 7 and 90."

"If you go to the English Parachuting Association web site... you find this lovely Excel spreadsheet which has got all the deaths... [F]or the last 20 years, 4.6 million jumps, 48 deaths... or 10 in a million. On average, with going up in a plane... I thought there's around 7 or 10 in a million chances of me dying. There's 50 million people in England and Wales... Every day 50 of them have accidental or violent deaths... not to do with their health. So a couple are murdered a day, a few are run over, some people fall off ladders, etc... So that's 1 in a million... Our daily dose of acute risk is a [a 1 in a million chance of dying]. So jumping out of a plane is only about a week's worth. ...[I]n terms of overall mortality... at my age, 59, it's 7,000 micromorts a year in terms of my chances of dying. So an extra 7 or 10 on top of that... [I]t's worthwhile doing... it once....So I did it [parachuted], and I survived."

"This was discovered by Gompertz in 1825. There's something about our bodies, the way that we age, that means that every year our chance of dying increases by the same amount, 9%."

"What we use in the book... are ways which we think might... provide gripping narratives, and yet provide a realistic way of communicating small risks..."

"[s] don't have to get into fantastically complicated statistics. ...It's all just to do with proportions, that's all! It's not a skill. Well, it is a skill in how to tell a story. ...[C]linicians now—we've got some online courses that do this—can learn to do it... Getting a rough idea of magnitudes is very important, and... to avoid words like "chances" and... I'm not even that keen on "s." So I'd much rather say... Experience shows that out of 100 people who match you in these characteristics—They're not you, but would be matching—This is what we would expect to happen, about 60 of them would survive this and... 30 blah, blah, blah... Just as a descriptor, and you could draw a little picture...[etc.] So we've got these possibilities. ...We don't know which one of these you'll be, and then it's very reasonable to tune it: but in your circumstances we... think you're better... other factors... put your chances a little higher... but we can't guarantee it either way."

"We spent ages... working... for child heart surgery... such a delicate area, trying to find the wording for... random error or binomial variability... [Y]ou can give a percentage... 95% . Well, am I going to be one of the 5% or one of the 95%? We don't know. It's just chance or luck, fortune. We can't... use those words in... delicate situations... operating on children... Then we came up with a good phrase... which we used and tested on parents... It's "unforeseeable factors," not "unforeseen factors," because that would suggest someone's to blame... [T]he unforeseeable factors could lead some people to... not survive the operation, and some to survive. So... we can put you in a group, but we can't go beyond that... [O]nly what develops over time, in terms of complications, or something like that, could... put... you in one group or another. "Unforeseeable factors," I really like that phrase. I try to use it all the time, I recommend it."

"So... in the book we make all these comparisons... That's acute timing risk, things that are going to kill you on the spot. ...What about the other sort of risks? ...You can have your spam ...[T]hat is not going to kill you on the spot. Well, it might. ...You might choke on...[it]... but it's... unlikely..."

"The point is... that you can make these comparisons quite easy... is... 8 [micromorts], running a marathon is... 7, ... 5, 's going to be 400..."

"When it comes to trying to prevent you endangering other people, I don't see anything wrong with persuasion. ...[Y]ou shouldn't be... [endangering people] and you should be trying to be persuaded, if not forced... I get quite Stalinist on these things because... it's so irresponsible for some people to endanger the health of others. If they wanted to make their own decision that only affects them, it's very different, and I wouldn't want to persuade anyone..."

"When epidemiologists... do studies, when they follow lots of people for years, they measure the effects of various habits, in terms of s. This is what it does to your hazard every year. So if you have a daily sausage or a bacon sandwich, this goes up by about 10%, a fixed amount... as your... annual risk. 10% increase in your annual risk of death, of not making it to your next birthday."

"[I]n medicine... ... not manipulation or coercion, is when... as a doctor or... authority, you genuinely believe that this action is in the person's best interests, but they don't... want to do it. ...How do you make that an ethical persuasion? It's based on... two things, first... respecting the autonomy of the individuals, that they can refuse... no matter what, respect their ability to choose... the other thing is your authenticity, your integrity, that... you are doing this on behalf of that individual, for their best interest; not... to keep your clinic numbers up or to stop this person being a nuisance...[etc.]"

"(DVTs) [normally] happen to around one person per 1,000 each year... out of 5 million people getting vaccinated, we would expect... 5,000 DVTs a year, or... 100 every week. So it is not at all surprising that there have been 30 reports."

"It’s a common human tendency to attribute a causal effect between different events, even when there isn’t one present..."

"[S]omeone is diagnosed with autism after receiving the , so people assume a causal connection – even when there isn’t one."

"I do math and statistics. That's what I do, so I come at the whole business of turning numbers into stories. ...How can we turn numbers into stories?"

"In the UK, adverse reactions are reported using the “yellow card”... Up to 28 February, around 54,000 yellow cards have been reported... from... 10 million vaccinations... three to six reports per 1,000 jabs [0.3-0.6%]. That means a far greater number of side-effects are reported in the trials..."

"He is a fool who thinks by force or skill To turn the current of a woman's will."

"A fop? In this brave, licentious age To bring his musty morals on the stage? Rhime us to reason? and our lives redress In metre, as Druids did the savages."

"Friendship's an empty name, made to deceive Those whose good nature tempts them to believe: There's no such thing on earth; the best that we Can hope for here is faint neutrality."

"He ought not to pretend to friendship's name, Who reckons not himself and friend the same."

"Happiness is a stranger to mankind, And, like to a forc'd motion, it is ever Strongest at the beginning; then languishing With time, grows weary of our company."

"He, who the rules of temperance neglects, From a good cause may produce vile effects."

"For 'tis not where we lie, but whence we fell; The loss of heaven's the greatest pain in hell."

"During our march the simoom was fearful, and the heat so intense that it was impossible to draw the guncases out of their leather covers, which it was necessary to cut open. All woodwork was warped; ivory knife-handles were split; paper broke when crunched in the hand, and the very marrow seemed to be dried out of the bones. The extreme dryness of the air induced an extraordinary amount of electricity in the hair and in all woollen materials. A Scotch plaid laid upon a blanket for a few hours adhered to it, and upon being withdrawn at night a sheet of flame was produced, accompanied by tolerably loud reports."

"The idea that there might exist small particles with no electrical charge has been put forward several times. , for example, suggested that a neutral particle might be formed by a negative electron and an equal positive charge, and that these "s" might possess many of the properties of the ether; while at one time suggested that the s emitted by radioactive substances consisted of small neutral particles, which, on breaking up, released a negative electron. The first suggestion of a neutral particle with the properties of the neutron we now know, was made by Rutherford in 1920. He thought that a proton and an electron might unite in a much more intimate way than they do in the hydrogen atom, and so form a particle of no nett charge and with a mass nearly the same as that of the hydrogen atom. His view was that with such a particle as the first step in the formation of atomic nuclei from the two elementary units in the structure of matter — the proton and the electron — it would be much easier to picture how heavy complex nuclei can be gradually built up from the simpler ones. He pointed out that this neutral particle would have peculiar and interesting properties."

"It has been shown by and others that when bombarded by s of emits a radiation of great penetrating power, which has an absorption coefficient in lead of about 0.3 (cm.)–1. Recently and found, when measuring the ionisation produced by this beryllium radiation in a vessel with a thin window, that the ionisation increased when matter containing hydrogen was placed in front of the window. The effect appeared to be due to the ejection of protons with velocities up to a maximum of nearly 3 × 109 cm. per sec. They suggested that the transference of energy to the proton was by a process similar to the , and estimated that the beryllium radiation had a quantum energy of 50 × 106 s."

"O thou who read'st what 's written here, Commiserate the lot severe, By which, compell'd, I write them. In vain Sophia I withstand, For Anna adds her dread command; I tremble—and indite them. Blame Eve, who, feeble to withstand One single devil, rais'd her hand, And gather'd our damnation; But do not me or Adam blame, Tempted by two, who did the same— His Wife—and her Relation."

"Why should Honesty seek any safer retreat From the lawyers or barges, odd-rot-'em? For the lawyers are just at the top of the street, And the barges are just at the bottom!"

"Samuel Warren, though able, yet vainest of men, Could he guide with discretion his tongue and his pen, His course would be clear for—"Ten Thousand a Year," But limited else to a brief—"Now and Then.""

"Now there’s ane end of ane old song."

"The Revolution is not to be considered as a mere effort of the nation on a pressing emergency to rescue itself from the violence of a particular monarch; much less as grounded upon the danger of the Anglican church, its emoluments, and dignities, from the bigotry of a hostile religion. It was rather the triumph of those principles which, in the language of the present day, are denominated liberal or constitutional, over those of absolute monarchy, or of monarchy not effectually controlled by stated boundaries. It was the termination of a contest between the regal power and that of parliament, which could not have been brought to so favourable an issue by any other means."

"Hallam's View of Europe, during the Middle Ages. 2 vols. A work of profound research, and displaying a free and vigorous spirit of inquiry and criticism."

"Hallam's Introduction to the Literature of Europe, during the 15th, 16th and 17th centuries, in 4 vols. This is a production of the greatest value, and distinguished like his other work, for research, judgment, taste and elegance."

"In Hallam's "Constitutional History of England," the good qualities of the antiquarian student are united with a masterly and impartial analysis of the growth of our political institutions, and set off by a classical grace of diction, and much power of exciting interest. The work is the only one of its kind and time, that combines, in a high degree, literary skill with valuable matter; and its merit is the greatest that can belong to an historical work, avowedly and designedly dissertative rather than narrative. The distinguished writer, (whose varied learning we shall yet meet on different ground,) conferred another standard work on our language, in his "View of the State of Europe during the Middle Ages.""

"The principal works of this judicious and learned writer are A View of Europe during the Middle Ages, The Constitutional History of England, and An Introduction to the Literature of Europe in the fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth centuries. With the skill of an advocate he combines the calmness of a judge; and he has been justly called "the accurate Hallam," because his facts are in all cases to be depended on. By his clear and illustrative treatment of dry subjects, he has made them interesting; and his works have done as much to instruct his age as those of any writer. Later researches in literature and constitutional history may discover more than he has presented, but he taught the new explorers the way, and will always be consulted with profit, as the representative of this varied learning during the first half of the nineteenth century."

"Mr. Maclaurin had... another scheme for the improvement of geography and navigation... the opening of a passage from Greenland to the South Sea by the North Pole. That such a passage might be found, he was so fully persuaded, that he used to say, if his situation could admit... he would undertake the voyage even at his own charge."

"When the Earl of Morton went... 1789, to... his estates in Orkney and Shetland, he requested... Maclaurin to assist him in settling the geography... very erroneous in all our maps; to examine their natural history, to survey the coasts, and to take the measure of a degree of the meridian. ...[F]amily affairs would not permit him to comply... [so] he drew up a memorial of what he thought necessary to be observed, and furnished proper instruments... recommending Mr. Short, the noted optician, as... operator..."

"But when schemes... were laid before the Parliament in 1744, and... before he could finish the memorials he proposed to send, the premium was limited to the... North West passage: and he used to regret that the word West was inserted, because he thought that passage, if at all to be found, must lie not far from the Pole."

"[H]e was always ready to lend his assistance in contriving and promoting any scheme which might contribute to the public service."

"His... merit as a philosopher was, that all his studies were accommodated to general utility; and we find, in many places of his works, an application even of the most absruse theories to the perfecting of mechanical arts. For the same purpose, he had resolved to compose a course of Practical Mathematics, and to rescue several useful branches of the science from the ill treatment... often met with in less skilful hands. These intentions... were prevented fay his death; unless we... reckon, as a part of his intended work, the translation of... David Gregory's Practical Geometry, which he revised, and published with additions, in 1745."

"In his life-time..., he had frequent opportunities of serving his friends and his country by his great skill."

"Since his death... two... volumes have appeared; his Algebra, and his Account of Sir Isaac Newton's Philosophical Discoveries."