friedrich-hayek

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April 10, 2026

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April 10, 2026

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"Indeed, in its endeavour to explain and predict particular events, which it does so successfully in the case of relatively simple phenomena (or where it can at least approximately isolate ‘closed systems’ that are relatively simple), science encounters the same barrier of factual ignorance when it comes to apply its theories to very complex phenomena. In some fields it has developed important theories which give us much insight into the general character of some phenomena, but will never produce predictions of particular events, or a full explanation—simply because we can never know all the particular facts which according to these theories we would have to know in order to arrive at such concrete conclusions. The best example of this is the Darwinian (or Neo-Darwinian) theory of the evolution of biological organisms. If it were possible to ascertain the particular facts of the past which operated on the selection of the particular forms that emerged, it would provide a complete explanation of the structure of the existing organisms; and similarly, if it were possible to ascertain all the particular facts which will operate on them during some future period, it ought to enable us to predict future development. But, of course, we will never be able to do either, because science has no means of ascertaining all the particular facts that it would have to possess to perform such a feat."

- Friedrich Hayek and evolution

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"Hayek was influenced by the biological metaphor of evolution (in contrast to Walras, who was inspired by notions in physics of “equilibrium”). Darwin had talked about the survival of the fittest, and Social Darwinism similarly contended that ruthless competition with the survival of the fittest firms would imply ever-increasing efficiency of the economy. Hayek simply took this as an article of faith, but the fact of the matter is that unguided evolutionary processes may, or may not, lead to economic efficiency. Unfortunately, natural selection does not necessarily choose the firms (or institutions) that are best for the long run. One of the main criticisms of financial markets is that they have become increasingly shortsighted. Some of the institutional changes (such as investors’ focus on quarterly returns) have made it more difficult for firms to take longer-run perspectives. In this crisis, some firms complained that they didn’t want to take on as much leverage as they did—they realized the risk—but if they hadn’t, they wouldn’t have survived. Their return on equity would have been low, market participants would have misinterpreted the low return as a result of lack of innovativeness and enterprise, and their stock price would have been beaten down. They felt that they had no choice but to follow the herd—with disastrous effects over the long run, both to their shareholders and to the economy."

- Friedrich Hayek and evolution

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"The conception that there is some simple correlation between the volume of aggregate demand for final goods and the total volume of employment derives from the experience of the shopkeeper that a strong demand for his goods secures his prosperity. The conception of such a relation as exists between the strength with which one may suck at one end of a pipe and the pull of the suction at the other end is of course the crudest possible misrepresentation that has been periodically reintroduced into scientific discussion, most recently and with devastating effect by Lord Keynes. The incredible crudity of this approach, congenial to the minds for whom scientific method exhausts itself in measuring the connection between changes of two observable magnitudes, ought to have been exposed long ago. The volume of employment is not determined by the relation of total demand to the total supply of goods and services but by the correspondence or non-correspondence between the distribution of demand among the different goods and services and the proportions in which these different things are offered. This applies not only to the horizontal or cross-sectional but equally to the longitudinal or vertical distribution within the stream of goods and services providing for future needs: the degree to which the volume of this stream is filled up or reduced and the corresponding shifts of demand from later to earlier stages of production or vice versa. Both these correspondence can be brought about only by appropriate changes in relative prices of the different means of production and a prompt adaptation of the quantities supplied to quantities demanded. Demand for labor is not a homogenous aggregate but an extremely diversified force with complex interactions among the parts, which defy any helpful summarization by statistics. All that is certain is that any rigidity of wages and any refusal to adjust them promptly to changing conditions must make it impossible for particular workers to find employment at the given wages, which is a condition that by various interconnections is bound to spread. Freezing the relations among the wages of different kinds of labor must produce unemployment."

- John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek

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"One of the oddities of Hayek’s career is that while his professional standing was secured through his work as an economist, he had by the mid-1940s given up economics as his central intellectual activity. A major reason for Hayek’s shift into social philosophy was that he believed – correctly – that he had lost the debate with John Maynard Keynes about the causes of the Great Depression. There can be no doubt that his encounter with Keynes was the most important event in his intellectual life. Yet he had little insight into Keynes either as a thinker or a human being. He told me that during their acquaintance he never realised that Keynes had been homosexual – a surprising admission, as it was hardly something Keynes concealed within his circle of friends. The two men had quite different kinds of minds – Keynes’s swift and mobile, with an almost clairvoyant power of entering into the thinking of others; Hayek’s slowly probing, inwardly turned and self-enclosed. They were nonetheless on cordial terms. Keynes found Hayek rooms in King’s College when the London School of Economics (where Hayek became a professor of economics in 1931) moved to Cambridge for the duration of the Second World War, and for a time the pair shared fire-watching duties on the roof of the college when it was feared that Cambridge might be bombed. With characteristic generosity, Keynes – while firmly rejecting its claim that government management of the economy is bound to lead to totalitarianism – heaped praise on Hayek’s anti-socialist tract The Road to Serfdom when it appeared in 1944. The differences between the two thinkers were as much in their underlying philosophies as in their economic theories. Both were sharply aware of the limits of human knowledge. But whereas Hayek invoked these limits to argue for non-intervention in the economy, Keynes recognised that bold action by governments is sometimes the only way in which the economy can be lifted out of depression – as when Roosevelt (to whom Keynes had written an open letter in 1933) successfully adopted some aspects of Keynesian thinking in the New Deal."

- John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek

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