University Of Pennsylvania Faculty

"Provision is made for utilization of a centralized staff of specialists to aid the decentralized operations."

"Centralized controls are designed to ensure that the chief executive can find out how well the delegated authority and responsibility are being exercised."

"The administrative unit that usually covers the company as a whole as well as all Its plants is broken Into smaller administrative units — often on a geographical or product basis. Each is headed by a manager who may be compared to the head of a smaller enterprise. Usually he has fairly complete control over basic line functions; if he also has staff services, such as accounting, engineering, research, and personnel. the unit may be largely self- contained."

"An organization that is based on pure rationality ignores many facets of human nature."

"A list of major management functions and their contents may be helpful in reorganization and in preparation of job descriptions, organization manuals, and charts. The major management functions, analyzed in this Appendix on the basis of a number of manuals, job descriptions, and interviews, are as follows:"

"The functions or job contents necessary to reach objectives must be defined. This step is governed by two precepts."

"In some cases the changes may represent just one part of a general improvement program. Such steps as the following, for example, will generally affect the organization structure:"

"This section will deal with the mechanics of organization—the actual processes or methods of creating and changing the company's organization structure. The problem is essentially that of best utilizing the people and resources presently on hand, as contrasted with the building up of an organization from scratch, described in Part I."

"In and of itself managerial decentralization is neither desirable nor undesirable. We must apply certain criteria in order to evaluate it. One such criterion is economic efficiency: At what point in the management hierarchy and by what individual is a particular decision made most efficiently? Is a particular function exercised or a service performed more cheaply if it is "centralized" or "decentralized"? It is impossible to say in general that either centralization or decentralization is more efficient."

"Centralized control is provided for in a number of different ways:"

"Organization studies usually are devoted to the study of large-scale enterprise because information about larger companies is generally more widely recorded and more readily available. Because of this, more emphasis needs to be placed on organization planning in the smaller firms. It was at the suggestion of Lt. Colonel Lyndall Urwick that AMA undertook this study of companies of different sizes, as a means of improving our knowledge of organization—a field in which he has made major contributions. Many of the larger companies face small-scale problems in their subsidiaries and small units. However, those starting work in the large firm find it difficult to visualize the evolutionary process on which their company's present operation is based. Therefore, it may be of interest even for large companies to study the various stages of growth, up to and including, of course, their own present stage of development."

"The major problems of organization can perhaps best be studied in dynamic terms, i.e., as they arise and change with the evolution of the company. In this dynamic setting the causes and nature of organization problems can be recognized most easily. Each major problem can be analyzed at the stage of the company's growth when it typically arises, when there are few complications and the organizational problem is centered about just one factor or change in the company's mode of operation. Just as it is easier to study the workings of democracy as they arise in one of the small towns of New England rather than in the United States as a whole, so it appears to be desirable, in dealing with a subject of such scope as organization, to isolate and study the major problems individually."

"I find myself just a little annoyed at the tendency of all of us to adopt certain clichés about decentralization and then glibly announce that we're for it. I have been somewhat amused at some of my colleagues who are most vocal in expounding the virtues of decentralization and yet quite unconsciously are apt to be busily engaged in developing their own personal control over activities for which they are responsible."

"The following basic characteristics of organization should be kept in mind in any discussion of organization planning:"

"Organization planning is the process of defining and grouping the activities of the enterprise so that they may be most logically assigned and effectively executed. It is concerned with the establishment of relationships among the units so as to further the objectives of the enterprise."

"In this study, the primary aim has been to provide a perspective on organization development which would combine basic truths with practical realities. The answers had to be drawn, in the first place, from the wisdom of the great authorities of the past. These were the pioneers in scientific management and their followers, and the economists who evolved the principles of profit maximization."

"This book is an analysis of the development and change of the organization structure of the individual company. It is an attempt to combine the systematic thinking on this subject with the "rule of thumb" of practical experience. It essays an integration of the formal structure of the enterprise with the human forces that mold and are molded by it. Thus it is designed to aid the practical man of affairs as well as the student of organization."

"The application of systematic methods to the conduct of business is one of the most striking developments of the present day. The successful pursuit of business activities is increasingly based on carefully developed plans and well-ordered arrangements. The body of knowledge, called Organization, has become increasingly helpful in accomplishing the objectives of the enterprise."

"Management policies and the quality of leadership have a lot to do with individual performance."

"23rd Academy President Ernest Dale, 79, a consultant to top executives of some of the world's largest corporations, emeritus professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Finance & Commerce and 23rd President of the Academy of Management (1968), passed away."

"Nature cannot achieve the first-best outcomes to which those like Kant aspire because the latter are not incentive-compatible. That is to say, they are achievable only if the human beings who live in the society act in a manner that is incompatible with their nature."

"How you think matters more than what you think."

"Philip Tetlock has just produced a study which suggests we should view expertise in political forecasting--by academics or intelligence analysts, independent pundits, journalists or institutional specialists--with the same skepticism that the well-informed now apply to stockmarket forecasting... It is the scientific spirit with which he tackled his project that is the most notable thing about his book, but the findings of his inquiry are important and, for both reasons, everyone seriously concerned with forecasting, political risk, strategic analysis and public policy debate would do well to read the book."

"The intellectually aggressive hedgehogs knew one big thing and sought, under the banner of parsimony, to expand the explanatory power of that big thing to “cover” new cases; the more eclectic foxes knew many little things and were content to improvise ad hoc solutions to keep pace with a rapidly changing world."

"beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded."

"The term ‘kinship’ correctly suggests the existence not only of contemporary relatives but also of ancestors. Indeed, the recent discussion of dynamic capability was prefigured historically, with a variety of terminology, in a number of sources. Perhaps the most directly relevant example among these earlier contributions is Schumpeter’s discussion of the ‘routinization of innovation’ (Schumpeter 1950). Schumpeter’s argument presented, however, an issue that remains central in contemporary discussion of dynamic capability—the possibly problematic character of the claim that there is such a thing as ‘learned competence’ for doingnew things."

"Towards the end of his life, Schumpeter re-painted his picture of capitalist development on an even broader canvas. In Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (Schumpeter 1950), he offered a complex, multifaceted argument that the type of capitalism he had earlier described might be passing from the historical scene, morphing by small degrees into some variety of socialism."

"The writings of Joseph Schumpeter contributed an essential part of the broad conceptual framework that now embraces the discussion of dynamic capabilities."

"The dilemma of a socialized system is that the information flow overwhelms a centralized system if it is open to new ideas and data, that closing the system and forcing the plan to work forecloses alternatives and risks unhedged mistakes, and that decentralizing without real markets poses the problems discussed by Hayek. These information problems permeate virtually all economic processes."

"Suppose someone sits down where you are sitting right now and announces to me that he is Napoleon Bonaparte. The last thing I want to do with him is to get involved in a technical discussion of cavalry tactics at the Battle of Austerlitz. If I do that, I'm getting tacitly drawn into the game that he is Napoleon Bonaparte. Now, Bob Lucas and Tom Sargent like nothing better than to get drawn into technical discussions, because then you have tacitly gone along with their fundamental assumptions; your attention is attracted away from the basic weakness of the whole story. Since I find that fundamental framework ludicrous, I respond by treating it as ludicrous – that is, by laughing at it – so as not to fall into the trap of taking it seriously and passing on to matters of technique."

"Using the popular macroeconomic models of the time, Lucas and Sargent showed how replacing traditional assumptions about expectations formation by the assumption of rational expectations could fundamentally alter the results. … Most macroeconomists today use rational expectations as a working assumption in their models and analyses of policy. This is not because they believe that people always have rational expectations. Surely there are times when people, firms, or financial market participants lose sight of reality and become too optimistic or too pessimistic. … But these are more the exception than the rule, and it is not clear that economists can say much about those times anyway. When thinking about the likely effects of a particular economic policy, the best assumption to make seems to be that financial markets, people, and firms will do the best they can to work out the implications of that policy. Designing a policy on the assumption that people will make systematic mistakes in responding to it is unwise."

"Sargent said in a talk here last year that it is simply a methodological mistake to regard any macroeconomic policy action as an isolated episode. The only legitimate way to think of economic policy is as if the government adopts a policy rule (which may have a random element). What he meant was that he can't apply his methods to isolated policy episodes. My reaction is that the man in the street or even the man in the corporation boardroom, looking at the US Congress making macroeconomic policy, regards it as a possibly unstable episode. He not only doesn't know how it is going to come out, he doesn't imagine it to be the application of a policy rule plus a random error."

"I remember a seminar here while Tom was visiting in Chicago. Every body was talking; it was a very chaotic seminar. In the middle of the seminar. Tom made some point and the speaker didn't seem to understand it. Tom dropped it and didn't say anything for the rest of the seminar. At the end, he just handed the speaker a piece of paper with a bunch of equations on it and said, "Here's what I was trying to say." I thought it was a very friendly, constructive thing to do, but the speaker said, "this is Sargent's idea of a conversation" and laughed. I think it's just that Tom thinks he can get things settled on a more technical level. Tom and I talk quite a bit. I think that we influence each other a lot."

"Tom Sargent is a bit out of touch with the real world up there in his office in Minneapolis. A lot of the disagreement is ideologically based, though certainly not on Tom's part. I see this by talking to people. Certain people have a capacity for ignoring facts which are patently obvious, but are counter to their view of the world; so they just ignore them."

"These ideas have implications not only for theoretical and econometric practices but also for the ways in which policymakers and their advisers think about the choices confronting them. In particular, the rational expectations approach directs attention away from particular isolated actions and toward choices among feasible rules of the game, or repeated strategies for choosing policy variables. While Keynesian and monetarists macroeconomic models have been used to try to analyze what the effects of isolated actions would be, it is now clear that the answers they have given have necessarily been bad, if only because such questions are ill-posed."

"What policymakers (and econometricians) should recognize, then, is that societies face a meaningful set of choices about alternative economic policy regimes."

"Cagan’s adaptive mechanism for explaining expectations of inflation has sometimes been criticized as an ad hoc formulation that is inconsistent with the hypothesis that expectations are rational. In this paper, we have showed that conditions exist under which adaptive expectations are fully rational."

"Q: “Professor Sargent, can you tell me what CD rates will be in two years?” Sargent: “No.”"

"I remember how happy I felt when I graduated from Berkeley many years ago. But I thought the graduation speeches were long. I will economize on words. Economics is organized common sense. Here is a short list of valuable lessons that our beautiful subject teaches.1. Many things that are desirable are not feasible. 2. Individuals and communities face trade-offs. 3. Other people have more information about their abilities, their efforts, and their preferences than you do. 4. Everyone responds to incentives, including people you want to help. That is why social safety nets don’t always end up working as intended. 5. There are tradeoffs between equality and efficiency. 6. In an equilibrium of a game or an economy, people are satisfied with their choices. That is why it is difficult for well-meaning outsiders to change things for better or worse. 7. In the future, you too will respond to incentives. That is why there are some promises that you’d like to make but can’t. No one will believe those promises because they know that later it will not be in your interest to deliver. The lesson here is this: before you make a promise, think about whether you will want to keep it if and when your circumstances change. This is how you earn a reputation. 8. Governments and voters respond to incentives too. That is why governments sometimes default on loans and other promises that they have made. 9. It is feasible for one generation to shift costs to subsequent ones. That is what national government debts and the U.S. social security system do (but not the social security system of Singapore). 10. When a government spends, its citizens eventually pay, either today or tomorrow, either through explicit taxes or implicit ones like inflation. 11. Most people want other people to pay for public goods and government transfers (especially transfers to themselves). 12. Because market prices aggregate traders’ information, it is difficult to forecast stock prices and interest rates and exchange rates."

"My recollection is that Bob Lucas and Ed Prescott were initially very enthusiastic about rational expectations econometrics. After all, it simply involved imposing on ourselves the same high standards we had criticized the Keynesians for failing to live up to. But after about five years of doing likelihood ratio tests on rational expectations models, I recall Bob Lucas and Ed Prescott both telling me that those tests were rejecting too many good models."

"My published work is just a record of my learning. I'm sharing it with people so they won't make the same mistakes that I did. It's been a painful and slow process. My work is like a journey, a journey of discovery."

"It is paradoxical that an administration that came to office rejecting the whole apparatus of Keynesian economics finds itself presiding over a stream of what threaten to be permanent deficits."

"An alternative “rational expectations” view denies that there is any inherent momentum in the present process of inflation. This view maintains that firms and workers have now come to expect high rates of inflation in the future and that they strike inflationary bargains in light of these expectations."

"For policy, the central fact is that Keynesian policy recommendations have no sounder basis, in a scientific sense, than recommendations of non-Keynesian economists or, for that matter, non-economists."

"All the categories of life and mind are to my understanding of them teleological."

"Art is (1) a messenger of discontent, yet (2) no teacher of new ideals, but rather (3) an inspiration to each it touches, himself to turn creator of a world-more-ideal."

"Singer was a student of William James, a lifelong associate of Peirce. Nevertheless, the connection between Singer and Peirce seems tenuous, despite the fact that we can now recognise Singer’s instrumentalism as an articulation of Peirce’s pragmatism."

"A group that was somewhat connected with general systems theory is usually associated with the term, the systems approach. They were located originally at the University of Pennsylvania. They later went to Case Western Reserve University and then back to the University of Pennsylvania. Their founding philosopher was E. A. Singer, Jr. One of Singer's students was C. West Churchman, and Churchman's first student was Russell Ackoff."

"Singer's historical study focused on how we know; how we learn facts and laws and the relationship between these. He divided the major philosophies of science into three classes:"

""The serious meaning of a concept," writes James, following Peirce, "lies in the concrete difference to some one which its being true will make. Strive to bring all debated conceptions to that "pragmatic" test, and you will escape vain wrangling. … If it can make no practical difference whether a given statement be true or false, then the statement has no real meaning." If the method defined in this passage be accepted, and I can not see how any one can fail to accept it even if one prove unfaithful to it afterwards, then could anything more fully illustrate the meaning of the 'meaningless' than that hypothesis of other minds in which the analogy argument culminates? Whatever may be said for the reasoning, is its conclusion at least right? Alas, I can not know. If right, my experience cannot inform me if wrong, my experience cannot disillusion me. It makes no practical difference to me whether I am right or wrong. Pragmatic conclusion: I cannot have made a meaningful hypothesis."