Academics From The United States

"Anti-imperialist movements are no longer middle class dominated nationalist movements, they are class-based because imperialism is embedded in everyday work and household survival."

"...The counter-position of “civil society” to the state is also a false dichotomy. Much of the discussion of civil society overlooks the basic social contradictions that divide “civil society”. Civil society or, more accurately, the leading classes of civil society, while attacking the “statism” of the poor have always made a major point of strengthening their ties to the treasury and military to promote and protect their dominant position in “civil society”. Likewise, the popular classes in civil society when aroused have sought to break the ruling classes’ monopoly of the state. The poor have always looked to state resources to strengthen their socio-economic position in relation to the rich. The issue is and always has been the relation of different classes to the state."

"...As always with Petras, there is much repetition/recycling of articles/ideas,much polemic and hot air but also a genuine engagement with the issues of revol-utionary transformation in Latin America, albeit from the perspective of the privi-leged peripatetic professor from the North."

"Why was Astour’s work considered so much more offensive? First, it offended at a formal level, because it challenged the academic hierarchy; this was a reflection of the relative power of the two disciplines. Although Classicists had previously discussed Eastern parallels to Hellenic mythology, it was entirely different and unacceptable for Orientalists to pronounce on Greece. There were also fundamental objections to the content of Astour’s work. Scholars like Fontenrose and Walcot had made broad sweeps of world mythology – including India, Iran and so on – and they gave preference, if possible, to the less offensive sources. By contrast, Astour’s derivation of Greek names from Semitic not only poached on the sacred ground of language, but also made the connections between West Semites and Greeks disturbingly close and specific. Furthermore, two of the myth cycles he treated – those of Kadmos and Danaos – were concerned with Near Eastern colonization in Greece, and he made a plausible case for their having a historical kernel of truth. The fourth section of Hellenosemitica was even more provocative in that it went into the sociology of knowledge, and its sketch of the history and ideology of Classics and Classical archaeology has been the basis of all later writings on this subject, this volume included. In doing this Astour injected relativism into subjects that had previously been impervious to the forces of probabilism and uncertainty that have transformed other disciplines since the 1890s."

"The upholders of conventional wisdom have been equally, if not more, disconcerted by Hellenosemitica, a major work by Gordon’s colleague Michael Astour, which first appeared in 1967. Hellenosemitica, a series of studies of striking parallels between West Semitic and Greek mythology, showed connections of structure and nomenclature that were far too close to be explained away as similar manifestations of the human psyche. Apart from the challenge posed by this basic theme, Astour made three other fundamental attacks. First, the fact of his writing the book at all upset the academic status quo. While it was permissible for a Classicist, coming from the dominant discipline, to discuss the Middle East in its relation to Greece and Rome, the converse did not hold true. A Semitist was felt to have no right to write about Greece. Secondly, Astour questioned the absolute primacy of archaeology over all other sources of evidence about prehistory—myth, legend, language and names—thus threatening the ‘scientific’ status of ancient history. Thirdly, he sketched out a sociology of knowledge for Classics, indicating links between developments in scholarship and those in society. He even implied a connection between anti-Semitism and hostility to the Phoenicians and cast doubt on the notion of steady accumulative progress of learning. But the worst threat came from his basic message that the legends of Danaos and Kadmos contained a factual kernel. So many heresies could not go unpunished. Astour was so battered by his critics that he has stopped work on the field he had so brilliantly opened up. Nevertheless his work, like that of Gordon, has had profound effects..."

"The future of popular-based social and economic changes does not he in parliamentary elections, given their elitist structure and the control exercised over the process. Movement politics linked to electoral campaigns has no future; nor does simple direct action in defense of particular local terrain. The future of movements must be rooted in creating autonomous electoral power anchored and coordinated with regional or national movements of direct action—dress rehearsals for creating a new state power response to civil society."

"Most dictatorships have been anti-statist and pro-free market, today and in the past and probably in the future."

"The inefficiency of the state is directly related to its subordination to private interests."

"Our decision rules determine which way we tilt, but we should not comfort ourselves with the fantasy that both unwanted outcomes can be avoided—in the face of genuine uncertainty, that’s just not possible. If you want to acquit all the innocent, you will also acquit some of the guilty. If you want to convict all the guilty, you will convict some who are innocent. You can’t have it both ways."

"Philosophy is the misuse of a terminology which was invented for just this purpose."

"This author freely admits to the shame of being a professor, and even to the worse shame of having a Ph.D.—the price of youthful indiscretion—so he is instantly rejected for jury service when the facts are made known to the lawyers in the case. If not by one side, then surely by the other—it depends on which one has the weaker case, and therefore places more value on confusing the jury."

"The practice of law must once have been different—though George Washington was president of the Constitutional Convention in 1787, more than half the attendees were lawyers. Yet the Constitution is both readable and a marvelous achievement in balancing conflicting interests, while still producing a blueprint for a functioning government. If the government seems dysfunctional now, it is our fault, not theirs."

"It is said that nature abhors a vacuum (a saying that has always struck this author as unusually dumb—since the vast majority of the natural universe is in fact a splendid vacuum, nature must in fact love a vacuum), but any perceived voids in the law books do tend to get filled in due course."

"Honorable lawyers will tell you that it is the function of a lawyer to help the jury or the court to follow the truth, wherever it may lead, but lawyers with that as their prime objective will soon have few clients. Most lawyers will tell you that their real obligation is to present the best possible case for the clients who are paying them—quite a different goal."

"It is fashionable in modern America to sneer at mathematics, nowhere more so than in sports."

"This is a general feature of all such sports. Though all managers and professionals speak wisely of streaks, and of batting slumps, and hot hands in basketball, the evidence is routinely consistent with the view that there are no such things, and that observers are notoriously bad in judging whether something is random or has a systematic pattern."

"Baseball, the most statistics-afflicted sport there is, is fair game for amateur decision-making buffs to second-guess, and it is truly amazing (at least to this author) how many of the hallowed traditions don’t stand up to reasonable scrutiny."

"It turns out that you can’t do better than a chance in ten of multiplying your bankroll by a factor of ten, even with the very best strategy. That’s a general rule for fair (or almost fair) games: the probability of achieving your objective before going broke is exactly the inverse of the amount by which you want to increase your fortune."

"No one should be embarrassed at having to look things up in a book—it’s a great habit to develop."

"People who claim there is no such thing as native intelligence are nuts."

"There is still a Flat Earth Society, so imagine the existence of a Bibipent Society, devoted to the notion that 2 + 2 = 5. Such a society might well have filed suit to stop the schools from teaching 2 + 2 = 4 as if it were a fact, and require them to present it as “only theory,” with 2 + 2 = 5 as an alternative possibility, deserving equal time. They would doubtless say that the purpose of a school is to educate, not to indoctrinate. (Does all this sound familiar? That’s the way it is with creationism and evolution.)"

"Despite the babbling of the creationists, evolution is inevitable in a competitive world, and it does work."

"Humans are not as different from other animals as we sometimes wish."

"All of this is well known to military operations analysts, mostly civilians, but is resisted by far too many high-ranking officers. It sounds sort of, well, mathematical, and that’s not macho."

"The laws of probability are mighty powerful, and they never sleep. If this were more widely understood there’d be a lot less crowing about good luck, and a lot less guilt about bad luck. And we’d have a more civilized world. Some things really do happen by chance, and there is little we can do to change that."

"The fact that self-interest can work against the common good is far-reaching, and no general solution is known."

"On a global level, there is no threat to human survival greater than that posed by world overpopulation—paradoxical though that may seem—and it is abundantly clear that consensus decision making is ineffective for dealing with that. Some kind of “solution” is nonetheless unavoidable, and is certain to be ugly. To say that there is no visible world leadership on that transcendental question is to understate the case. Optimists on the population problem don’t measure progress in terms of a decrease in population, or even a decrease in the rate of increase, but in terms of a decrease in the rate of increase of the rate of increase."

"Although anything can happen, it usually won’t."

"People seem to flinch at the word probability—it has too many syllables. Besides, it sounds mathematical, and it’s become politically correct in our country to be proud of not knowing any mathematics. (We’re already paying the price for that.)"

"It is always a good strategy for two players to join forces (or conspire) against the third, and to settle their own differences when he has been done in. With suitable variations, that lesson applies to games with more and more players, to say nothing, alas, of life."

"In our modern societies, in the United States and elsewhere, there are simply too many ways to stop things, and too few to keep them going. As recently as forty years ago, in this author’s direct memory, that wasn’t true. (If the Interstate Highway System were to be proposed now, it wouldn’t stand a chance.)"

"As far back as the earliest biblical times, the commandment “Thou shalt not kill” applied to thy friends and neighbors—all bets were off when dealing with tribal enemies. Especially when they had other religious predilections."

"So the road to a decision involves five steps, each simple enough: list of the actions you can take (a decision is just a choice among possible actions, including the action of taking no action at all); list the reasonably conceivable consequences of each of the various actions, as best you can guess them; assess, as best you can, the chance (or odds, or probability) that any particular consequence will follow from any particular action (this is an issue we need to get into—the one most people gloss over); find a way to express your objectives, how much you wish for (or dread) the various possible consequences; and finally put it all together in such a way that it can lead to a rational decision."

"More often than we would like, those who are governed have a little say about how they are governed, and decision-making authority with any group is simply seized by a subset of individuals, or a political party, or an army, with a little underlying rationale beyond a lust for power. (That lust is deeply ingrained in the human race, has a long history, and will not be magically erased by sermonizing.)"

"The common good is always in conflict with concern for individuals, and it doesn’t help rational decision making to pretend otherwise. Besides, the common good and the common want may themselves have little to do with each other."

"It is a fallacy of human perception to see patterns that aren’t there, and to see order where there is none."

"Where it really matters to us, as in choosing a surgeon to remove an inflamed appendix, we tend to forsake democracy for expertise. But not in jury trials."

"Rational decisions are impossible unless you make clear at the outset just what it is that you want to accomplish, and what you want to avoid."

"The Constitution still leaves apportionment to the politicians most affected by it, in clear conflict with common sense, and congressional salaries are still left in the hands of the beneficiaries, again in clear conflict with common sense. Two hundred years, and no progress."

"And, of course, our federal budget is well over a trillion dollars a year, and we have no requirement that any member of Congress (or the president, for that matter) have any experience in or knowledge about financial management. Or indeed anything at all. Nor do the few candidates who flaunt their economic expertise find it an effective selling point."

"The basic ailment afflicts more than the use of taxes; it affects all matters in which the unaffected or uninformed are the decision makers for all of us."

"This author is a supporter of at least minimal literacy requirements for voting—having illiterate people vote may seem perfect democracy, but it leads to bad decisions—and he has been called many unflattering names as a result. But unless we bring some skills to the public decision-making process we will make terrible and costly mistakes. It is not a simple world we live in, and our survival as a nation or society is not guaranteed by any natural law."

"Decision making by large groups can never lead to venturesome decisions."

"Those who proclaim so loudly and self-righteously that diversity strengthens a society will have trouble finding historical support for the view."

"In summary, the common good as a standard for decision making sounds virtuous, but it is not simple, not easily implementable, and certainly not universally applicable."

"There may be people who know more than you, and can therefore do a better job of predicting the odds. If you can find one to help you out, do so. But steer clear of phoney prophets, like astrologers, palmists, and readers of crystal balls. (We may have lost some readers on that sentence. Polls continue to show that an appalling and disturbing fraction of Americans still believe in that baloney.)"

"The better is the worst enemy of the plenty good enough."

"Much of the uncertainty in individual decision making comes from not knowing what we really want to achieve through the decision, and from our tendency to exaggerate both potential losses and potential gains. People buy lottery tickets and play the slot machines at casinos, despite the fact that the casino owners and the lottery managers aren’t in business to give away money.…Hopeful gamblers (and the writers of lottery advertising) are fond of pointing out that, after all, someone does win. That’s exaggeration of potential gain, because it doesn’t mean that you have a realistic chance of winning. On the other side of the coin, exaggerated fear of harmful effects keeps some parents from immunizing their children against disease, leads them to throw away their electric blankets, and makes them demand that schools root out harmless asbestos in the walls, which would usually have been better left alone. We are terrified of trivial risks, and spend billions in futile efforts to control them. That’s exaggeration in the other direction. Both expectations of gain and fears of loss are far too often overblown, to the detriment of balanced decision making."

"Someone once said that he had made many mistakes in life, but never because he knew too much."

"Proportional representation makes it harder to trample a minority, but correspondingly harder to effectuate the desires of the majority. Take your choice. It comes down, as usual, to the ends you seek."