"Let me go back to 2010 when Nature, the journal... asked a number of scientists to make some forecasts for the next decade... (2010-2020) and that's when I published the forecast that.., the growing political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade. ...10 years later ...together with my coauthor, , we have revisited this forecast to see whether it had anything to do with reality, and... this is one of the graphs... We looked at several measures of instability, one was anti-government demonstrations. A very similar picture shows up when you look at violent riots. And so we submitted this paper in early 2020 saying that this forecast was actually right... [A]s the paper was [under] review, the summer of 2020, the riots following the death of George Floyd have exploded and... in January of 2021 we had the shocking event... known as the Storming of the Capitol."
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Academics from the United StatesNon-fiction authors from the United StatesHistorians from the United StatesPolitical scientists from the United StatesBiologists from the United States
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2:46 Ref: "The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010-2020 decade: A retrospective assessment", Peter Turchin, Andrey Korotâyêv PLOS ONE
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Peter_Turchin
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Peter Turchin
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