""As the 30th anniversary of the Roe decision approaches, women's right to safe, legal abortions is in dire peril," The New York Times wrote last month in an editorial called "The War Against Women." When Roe v. Wade turned 30 on January 22, pro-choice activists repeated the conventional wisdom that abortion rights are under siege. "A woman's right to choose is probably in the greatest danger ... since Roe vs. Wade was handed down," Kate Michelman, the head of the newly renamed NARAL Pro-Choice America, told USA Today. "With a slim one-vote margin on the Supreme Court protecting freedom of choice," Michelman insists, Roe is in danger of being overturned with a single Supreme Court appointment. And, with the Senate, House, and White House in the hands of pro-lifers for the first time since Roe was decided, pro-choicers fear that its overturning would be followed by widespread restrictions on early-term abortion rights for the first time since the 1970s. But the alarmism about abortion rights is wrong. Rather than hanging by a five-to-four thread, the core principle of Roe is supported by six justices. And, even in the unlikely event that Roe were overturned, the core right it protects--the right to choose abortion early in pregnancy--isn't likely to be threatened on a broad scale. For the past 30 years, national polls have revealed a consistent and moderate consensus on abortion: Majorities strongly oppose bans on early-term abortions and strongly support restrictions on late-term abortions. If Roe were overturned, the relative political weakness of the extreme pro-life position would be exposed, and the Republican Party would be torn apart at the seams because many Republicans oppose early-term bans and would desert the party in droves. "The last thing in the world the White House would want is that Roe v. Wade is overturned," says a prominent Republican congressional aide. "The reason being is that it would energize the nation's pro-choice constituency, ... and it would cause a huge fissure in the Republican Party, which has been generally harmonious over the issue because of the belief that the pro-life position will never truly be tested." At the same time, if Roe were overturned, the expanded and moderate Democratic majority would be free to distance itself from extremists in the pro-choice movement who persist in fighting restrictions on late-term abortions, which most Americans embrace. In short, 30 years later, it seems increasingly clear that this pro-choice magazine was correct in 1973 when it criticized Roe on constitutional grounds. Its overturning would be the best thing that could happen to the federal judiciary, the pro-choice movement, and the moderate majority of the American people."