"He [Gove] evoked a support at least for that position [found in Tetlock's book], Expert Political Judgment, in which portions of that book compare subject matter experts to minimalist statistical baselines like extrapolation. Can you predict simple extrapolation algorithms? And the answer was often no. Gove was raising the point that, where do these guys get off making these confident predictions about the consequences of Brexit? And the best empirical evidence would suggest that probably not materially more accurate than simple extrapolation algorithms."