"Next, with a frequency of about one game in twelve, is the Turkish Attack: This opening does, however, have two distinct disadvantages : it is unequivocally anti-Turkish, making subsequent negotiations more difficult; and it is very weak if Turkey attacks you, as he usually will. So reserve this one for the occasions when you are at least ninety per cent sure Turkey is an idiot."
January 1, 1970
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)