Maria Konnikova

"Your likelihood of slipping in a shower is orders of magnitude larger than your likelihood of being in a terrorist attack— but just try convincing someone of that, especially if they knew someone who died in the Twin Towers."

"The successful funds in any given year are mostly lucky; they have a good roll of the dice. There is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not— and few of them do— are playing a game of chance."

"When it comes to learning, Triumph is the real foe; it’s Disaster that’s your teacher. It’s Disaster that brings objectivity. It’s Disaster that’s the antidote to that greatest of delusions, overconfidence. And ultimately, both Triumph and Disaster are impostors. They are results that are subject to chance. One of them just happens to be a better teaching tool than the other."