Decision-making

"The type of rationality we assume in economics — perfect, logical, deductive rationality — is extremely useful in generating solutions to theoretical problems. But it demands much of human behavior — much more in fact than it can usually deliver. If we were to imagine the vast collection of decision problems economic agents might conceivably deal with as a sea or an ocean, with the easier problems on top and more complicated ones at increasing depth, then deductive rationality would describe human behavior accurately only within a few feet of the surface. For example, the game Tic-Tac-Toe is simple, and we can readily find a perfectly rational, minimax solution to it. But we do not find rational “solutions” at the depth of Checkers; and certainly not at the still modest depths of Chess and Go."

"You have to start with the truth. The truth is the only way that we can get anywhere. Because any decision-making that is based upon lies or ignorance can't lead to a good conclusion."

"The fine art of executive decision consists in not deciding questions that are not now pertinent, in not deciding prematurely, in not making decision that cannot be made effective, and in not making decisions that others should make. Not to decide questions that are not pertinent at the time is uncommon good sense, though to raise them may be uncommon perspicacity. Not to decide questions prematurely is to refuse commitment of attitude or the development of prejudice. Not to make decisions that cannot be made effective is to refrain from destroying authority. Not to make decisions that others should make is to preserve morale, to develop competence, to fix responsibility, and to preserve authority."

"The dictionary defines "economics" as "a social science concerned chiefly with description and analysis of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services." Here is another definition of economics which I think is more helpful in explaining how economics relates to software engineering."

"If you obsess over whether you are making the right decision, you are basically assuming that the universe will reward you for one thing and punish you for another."

"In recent years there has been increased interest in the effects of internal communication on decision processes. A number of hypotheses relating the bias in information to the final decision have been proposed. In this paper we discuss two laboratory experiments which were designed to test two such hypotheses. The first experiment tests the hypothesis that cost and sales estimations are made with the implicit assumption that a biased pay-off structure exists. The second experiment tests explicitly the effects of biased and unbiased pay-off structures on estimation within an organization. An analysis of the data for the two experiments is made and some implications for further research are drawn from the results."

"Early states had a hereditary leader with a title equivalent to king, like a super paramount chief and exercising an even greater monopoly of information, decision making, and power. Even in democracies today, crucial knowledge is available to only a few individuals, who control the flow of information to the rest of the government and consequently control decisions. For instance, in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1963, information and discussions that determined whether nuclear war would engulf half a billion people were initially confined by President Kennedy to a ten-member executive committee of the National Security Council that he himself appointed; then he limited final decisions to a four-member group consisting of himself and three of his cabinet ministers."

"... Making medical decisions has been the physician's job, never our own. When we seek treatment, we often find ourselves lost, adrift in a poorly designed system that pushes us along quickly and officiously from the silo of one specialist to the next. We're told to always ask our doctors, but then we're consigned to less than 15 minutes of face time in an office visit. When we seek out information, we get lost in a muddle of contradictory studies and imprecise advice. ... ... By factoring in our family histories, our good and bad habits, and, ultimately, the conditions we need to ward off or treat, using a approach can maximize our efforts to push ill health, and ultimately death, as far into the future as possible. It's a powerful way to think about our health."

"No decision in business provides greater potential for the creation of wealth (or its destruction, come to think of it) than the choice of which innovation to back."

"Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person -- you already feel fortunate. Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference; they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders -- not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks. They are talented and they have been lucky, almost certainly luckier than they acknowledge."

"Children learn how to make good decisions by making decisions, not by following directions"

"Because people face trade-offs, making decisions requires comparing the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action. In many cases, however, the cost of an action is not as obvious as it might first appear. […] The opportunity cost of an item is what you give up to get that item. When making any decision, decision makers should be aware of the opportunity costs that accompany each possible action. In fact, they usually are. College athletes who can earn millions if they drop out of school and play professional sports are well aware that their opportunity cost of college is very high. It is not surprising that they often decide that the benefit of a college education is not worth the cost."

"Which eyes should I look for to find the ultimate unreasoned answer?"

"Without asking anybody’s advice, I turned myself insane."

"Decisions made against the will of the heart never bring good to anyone. Refusing may bring pain for a while, just for a moment, but agreeing to something merely to please someone aches forever and hurts everyone."

"The function of knowledge in the decision-making process is to determine which consequences follow upon which of the alternative strategies. It is the task of knowledge to select from the whole class of possible consequences a more limited subclass, or even (ideally) a single set of consequences correlated with each strategy."

"The central economic issues go beyond the traditional three questions posed at the beginning of every introductory text: What is to be produced? How is it to be produced? And for whom is it to be produced? Among the broader set of questions are: How should these resource allocation decisions be made? Who should make these decisions? How can those who are responsible for making these decisions be induced to make the right decisions? How are they to know what and how much information to acquire before making the decisions? How can the separate decisions of the millions of actors decision makers in the economy be coordinated?"

"Within image theory (e.g., Beach, 1990; Mitchell & Beach, 1990), it is suggested that important components of decision-making processes are the different “images” that a person may use to evaluate choice options. Images may represent a person's principles, goals, or plans. Decision options may then match or not match these images and be adopted, rejected, considered further, depending on circumstances."

"Recognizing that people face trade-offs does not by itself tell us what decisions they will or should make. A student should not abandon the study of psychology just because doing so would increase the time available for the study of economics. Society should not stop protecting the environment just because environmental regulations reduce our material standard of living. The poor should not be ignored just because helping them distorts work incentives. Nonetheless, people are likely to make good decisions only if they understand the options they have available. Our study of economics, therefore, starts by acknowledging life’s trade-offs."

"Social and economic inequalities are to satisfy two conditions: first, they are to be attached to positions and offices open to all under conditions of fair equality of opportunity; and second, they are to be to the greatest benefit to the least- advantaged members of society."

"Wherever, in any country the whole people feel that the happiness of all is dependent upon the happiness of the weakest, there freedom exists."

"Lord creates and chooses whatever He wills—the choice is not theirs. Glorified and Exalted is Allah above what they associate ˹with Him˺!"

"Narrated by Hazrat Jabir ibn Abd-Allah al-Salami, he said, The Messenger of Allah (peace be upon him) used to teach us the rules of reciting Istikharah regarding our actions with the same importance as he would teach us a Surah of the Holy Quran. He used to say, "When one of you intends to do something (and is worried about its consequences), he should first pray two rak'ahs of voluntary prayer, then supplicate thus: O Allah, I choose You with Your knowledge and I seek Your guidance with Your ability, and I ask You of Your bounty, for You are the Knower of the unseen, O Allah, if You know that this is الأَمْرَ تسم تسميه بعينه خَيْرا لِي فَاجِلِ أَمْرِي وَآجِلِهِ قال او فِي دِينِي وَمَعَاشِي وَعَاقِبَةِ أَمْرِي فَاقْدُرهُ لي وَيَسِرهُ لي ثُمْ بَارِك لي فِيهِ, ALLAH وَإِنْ كُنْتَ تَعْلَمُ أَنَّه شَرٌّ لي في ديني وَمَعَاشِي وَعَاقِبَةِ أَمْرِي أَوْ قَالَ في عَاجِلِ امري وَآجِلِهِ, فَاصْرِفْنِي عَنْهُ عَنِّى], And He has ordained for me good, as He was, and then He has pleased me with it. Pronunciation: Allah-humma ibi astakhiruka biilmika a astakdiruka bi qudratika a asaluka min fazbalikal azeem, faynaka taqdiru ala aqdiru ata'lamu ala a'lamu a anta Allah-mul-guyub. Allah-humma in kunta talamu anna ha-zal amar ( ) khairul li li deeni a maashi a aqibati amri a a-jilihi a a-jilih, faqdurhu li, a yassirhu li, summa ba-rik li fih. O Allah! I ask You for goodness with Your knowledge. I ask You for strength and Your grace with Your power. For You have the power; I have no power. You know, I have no knowledge, and You are fully aware of the unseen. O Allah! In Your knowledge, this matter of mine (will list my needs) for my present and future life, or if it is good for my religion, livelihood, and actions, then decree it for me. Make it easy for me and bless it. O Allah! And if, in Your knowledge, this act of mine is harmful to my religion, my livelihood, my actions, or to my present and future, then turn me away from it and keep it away from me. Ordain for me good in all things and make me content with it.”"

"Good things must be asked of Allah with all diligence, bad things cannot be asked of, and in all matters that have the potential or possibility of both good and bad, one must make istikhara."

"Sulát-ul-Istikhára.—Prayers for success or guidance. The person who is about to undertake any special business, performs two rakʾat prayers and then goes to sleep. During his slumbers he may expect to have "ilhám," or inspiration, as to the undertaking for which he seeks guidance!"

"I didn't talk much to Dadajan. He used to listen to the news on the transistor all the time. Sometimes he would go to the residence of a Pir Saheb named Hamid Qutubi, three miles away. He became a disciple of this Pir. When he couldn't hear the transistor, he would chant the prayers given by the Pir Saheb. Dadajan was terrified. His terror increased every day. He couldn't sleep at night. He would sit on a wicker chair on the veranda all night. One night, to know the future, he made istikhara. During istikhara, he saw a huge white bird with bright red eyes, come down from the sky, bite my hair and fly up into the sky. I was screaming, save me! save me! Dadajan, save me. Dadajan took a helicopter to save me. That helicopter was again being flown by a Pakistani pilot. He was shooting the bird with a pistol, as if he was flying a helicopter. No bullet hits the bird. It hits Avanti's cheek. Dadajan's Pir Hamid Qutubi interpreted the dream. Dadajan did not tell me what the interpretation was, but he became even more restless. All sorts of terrible news started coming from all sides. The military was bringing gunboats, burning houses, killing people indiscriminately, taking away young girls, all this. At one point, the military came to our area...."

"Miru put the sari on Auntie's head. Sultana said in a choked voice, will you marry Nasser? There is no need to say yes. If you remain silent, I will understand that you do not agree. - Auntie, sleep. So you have an opinion? Alhamdulillah. Miru said, you said if you remain silent, you will understand that I have an opinion. But I did not remain silent. I spoke. I said, Auntie, sleep. Sultana said, whether you like it or not, you will marry Nasser. I got this thing by praying Istikhara. - How did you get this thing? - Praying Istikhara. A method of knowing the future in dreams by reading prayers. - What did you see in your dream? In your dream, I saw you two eating rice from one plate. A big plate made of Chinese clay. - Does eating rice from one plate mean marriage? - Dreams of praying come like symbols. Symbols have to be interpreted. This is what comes in my interpretation. What is your interpretation? - My interpretation is that you sincerely want me to marry Nasser Sahib. You saw this thing in your dream because you want it. Wishful thinking to wishful dreaming. Aunty, did you fall asleep? Sultana did not answer. She really fell asleep."

"There is a way to ask the dead. This is called Istikhara. You have to go to sleep after reciting prayers and supplications. You have to sleep in the north-south direction, keeping your face pure. Your face should be turned towards the Kaaba."

"Sobahan's father arrived the day after his son's wedding. There was no way to recognize him. A full beard and moustache. Long Babri hair reaching to his neck. When he combed it with a comb, lice would fall out from there. The size of those lice was also huge. He became very enthusiastic about killing lice. He started keeping track of exactly how many lice he had killed. For example, one day, a total of seventy-seven lice had died. This was the biggest record. He shared this news with a smile, as if it were his. A great success. He also expressed great enthusiasm about the marriage of his eldest son. He kept saying countless times that the girl was a very auspicious sign. He is said to have come running after learning about this marriage by praying for blessings. He was seen chatting with his daughter-in-law from time to time. He stayed for almost a year, then left again and was never found again. Farid Ali passed IA. He got admitted to the BA class and failed the BA exam on time. Sobahan passed the IA. He started trying to get a job in Dhaka city. He got admitted to college and eventually passed the BA without any further studies."

"Istikhara (prayer for guidance) led me to Arsenal."

"Shadab’s family sent the proposal, and it all happened in few days since I had decided to marry off my daughter early according to the religious teachings. Shadab’s mother came with marriage proposal and said she won't leave my house until I say yes and that even if someone is a beggar or a king, he has to find his daughter's match and get her married; it is also Allah's will. You do Istikhara (seek guidance from Allah through prayers) and I will also do Istikhara. Besides, Shadab always offers his prayers five times a day. I had closely observed him. He used to gather all of us for namaz, It took me two days to decide and I said yes to them within two days and the rest is history. I consider myself fortunate because I solemnized my daughter’s Nikah and that too on the day when there was complete blackout in Pakistan.”"

"Imran did not woo the lady with romantic words or gestures like a conventional proposal. Reham was quite taken aback when Imran asked her what her parents names were and explained that he would like them to read the Istakhara or the special prayer before their wedding."