"s are very valuable in... low probability, high impact events. Every time you cross the road there is a low probability and high impact that you're going to get run over. ...You take extra precautions to reduce... very small risk to... even smaller. ...[O]n an absolute risk scale, you [might] say, "Oh, I'm not going to bother... It's not worth doing..." but... by making that low risk even smaller, it's... valid... [P]eople discovered this... doing earthquake predictions... [T]he absolute risk... it's always low. They're very unpredictable... but telling people it's 10 times normal, or 100 times normal, people will act... appropriately. ...They won't panic. They won't rush away. ...[I]n Italy ...they ...sleep outside for a bit. ...So in certain circumstances relative risk can be very valuable... [U]sing both in... situations... with very small risks.., where... consequences are... severe... [and] the cost of the intervention, the action, is... minimal. Taking a bit more precautions, being a bit more careful... not putting a big investment into making a very small risk even smaller.... not walking under ladders... a low-cost change in your behavior to make a small risk even smaller... [A]bsolute risks really don't deal well with that, because you're talking 0.000..."
Quote Details
Added by wikiquote-import-bot
Unverified quote
0 likes
Fellows of the Royal SocietyMathematicians from EnglandNon-fiction authors from EnglandEducators from EnglandStatisticians
Original Language: English
Available Languages (1)
Sources
Imported from EN Wikiquote
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/David_Spiegelhalter
Revision History
No revisions have been submitted for this quote.
Categories
David Spiegelhalter
Sir David John Spiegelhalter (born 16 August 1953) is a British statistician and a Fellow of . From 2007 to 2018 he was in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge. He is an ISI highly cited researcher and current Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the . In 2020 he joined the UK Statistics Authority board as a non-executive director for a period of three years, which was extended through to 2026.
47 quotes on TrueQuotesView all quotes by David Spiegelhalter →
Related Quotes
"I do math and statistics. That's what I do, so I come at the whole business of turning numbers into stories. ...How c…"
"What we use in the book... are ways which we think might... provide gripping narratives, and yet provide a realistic …"
"If you go to the English Parachuting Association web site... you find this lovely Excel spreadsheet which has got all…"
"The point is... that you can make these comparisons quite easy... is... 8 [micromorts], running a marathon is... 7, .…"
"So... in the book we make all these comparisons... That's acute timing risk, things that are going to kill you on the…"
"So it's a different sort of risk. These are chronic risks. ...[T]hings that... if you carry on with them, are likely …"
"This is called a hazard curve. ...This is the chance of dying before your next birthday, on average. ...[I]t's... on …"
"This was discovered by Gompertz in 1825. There's something about our bodies, the way that we age, that means that eve…"
"When epidemiologists... do studies, when they follow lots of people for years, they measure the effects of various ha…"
"Randomised trials have proved the effectiveness of some Covid treatments and saved vast numbers of lives... also show…"